India-China face-off worsens over ADB loan for Arunachal Pradesh
Pak claims Hafiz Saeed is a 'free man'
Clearly India finds itself in an unenviable position as it becomes increasingly clear that no cooperation can be expected from her two main neighbours. So is there a way out? There are no easy answers, but there may be worthwhile options to to explore...
Lets begin with China. First a quick snapshot of China's pesky behaviour. China has successfully blocked a 2.9 billion $ loan at the Asian Development Bank meant for infrastructural development in Arunachal Pradesh. It voiced maniacal protests about our prime minister's visit to the state. And stapled Chinese visas to passports of Indians travelling from J&K, in an attempt to underline its disputed status. Chinese incursions in Ladakh left behind scores of 'red' rocks with China written over them. Its probably now time to pay back in kind - the proverbial tit for tat.
First we must begin with our biggest asset in Indo-China relations - the Dalai Lama. Hail his contribution and efforts in attempting a peaceful resolution of Tibet, even in the face of severe Chinese repression. STOP scuttling protests by Tibetans in India. Rather, stealthily begin feeding them. And for good measure, give them wide publicity. Start stapling Indian visas to Tibetans. Rachet up rhetoric on Xinjiang and the human rights violations of Uighurs.
That should temper the Chinese a bit and lead them to think twice before they take us for granted. In the meantime continue the diplomatic offensive by lodging formal protests and raking up the issue in diplomatic forums. Payback!
And now, for Pakistan. No summary or recounting required here! When we say terrorism, US invariably comes into the picture. The only way a country can truly fight its war on terror is if that country is the US - and that is the harsh reality of today. India can do nothing till the US decides something needs to be done. So can we make that happen?
Well yes...the suggestion might sound atrocious...and this is probably the best time to do it. War mongering! (of course nobody wants a war)
Pakistan has launched a fresh offensive against the Taliban in the traditionally lawless province of Waziristan. And the US is impressed with Pakistan's new found commitment to fighting the Taliban. All we need to do is to change Pakistan's threat perception of India. And that will force it to pull out troops from Waziristan, badly denting the US's war on terror. And that might sufficiently capture the US's attention to Pakistan's duplicity in calling a set of people terrorists and another, freedom fighters. It is important for the world to know that India has been patient for too long and will now take no more at this juncture. Only then will it lead the US to pressure Pakistan to act against terror outfits targetting India.
Some might say that we did the same in 2001 after the parliament attack with little consequence. But the situation is different now. Then the focus was on Afghanistan. Now it is Pakistan. The US has a lot to lose today in case of a similar military deployment and standoff. It might just give us the breakthrough we have been waiting for so long.
We are and will always be a very responsible nation.
But it's time for audacious thoughts.
And it's time for confident actions.
Then the world will indeed stop and take notice.
4 comments:
Question: What does US with its formidable array of defense contractors want from India? To reduce tensions with Pakistan and China and slow down on arms race? Does it want India and China to team up peacefully so that the combination can act as a formidable block?
Why does India need to run to superpowers to resolve its bilateral disputes? Why does it have to align itself to being a counter to China's increasing influence?
As for China's blocking of ADB loan. Why do we need external help for Arunachal Pradesh? If China want's to block it, lets use such sources for Bihar, UP and co and use our own funds in Arunachal Pradesh. China didn't use World Bank funds to build infrastucture in Tibet - did it?
As for India - its pointless doing war mongering with Pakistan. India does an awful job of building its strategic capabilities against China and Pakistan. There's a line a defence analyst once wrote in his article which is pertinent - "Intentions can change overnight. Capabilities don't."
India needs to analyze its position relative to its neighbours and work on making itself a player with which nobody wants war with. Until that happens, we can continue to running to impotent organizations like UN complaining about how little brother Pakistan is misbehaving with us.
It's time we took matters in our own hands.
Very true - valid questions there.
But one thing we must note is that ours, if at all, will be a response and not an initiation.
Which means the questions rise to relevance when both China and India streamline their thoughts. That clearly does not seem to be happening.
In the face of whats happening, its going to be diplomatic suicide if we let China continue with its antics.
Which is why the ADB loan is symbolic. It's not about whether we need a loan or not for Arunachal Pradesh. Its about the fact that China managed to make even that leave several 'red'-faced Indian diplomats behind - pun intended. Meek responses will embolden them further.
As for defence capabilities, in both conventional and nuclear capabilities India>Pakistan. So we can very well frustrate and irritate the Pakistani folks. We have unwittingly allowed ourselves to be commanded by US. So until we dont go all out to undo that damage, our War on Terror will essentially have to be fought thru' them. And since US really doesnt care too much about India, it will have to be by crook, rather than by hook.
Talking about defence capabilities, with the successful launch of the GSLV, India has, in principle, now the technical know-how to design an ICBM. It has vehemently denied rumours of development. But I just hope that in some secret site somewhere in the the country, it is taking shape. As the righteous nuclear powers claim, for deterrence and peaceful purposes. :)
I do not understand why borders of India are so poorly managed when we have been squabbling over it so long. Admitting that we did not have the technology or resources to accurately map the borders in difficult terrain presented by J&K and Arunachal Pradesh 60 years back, but as over the years technology became more available nobody thought it important to resolve the borders. Representatives of all invovled nations just thought it is enough if they stick to their own maps provided by their predecessors (which I assume were hand drawn). Result is that each country has an international border conflicting with the other. Sorry I take back my words, not each country. Nepal and Bhutan have their international borders accurately mapped on the Google maps and nobody seems to have a problem with them. How is it possible for a country which is not as developed as India to have more accurately mapped borders than India. The issues of loans and visas are all an offshoot of the original underlying problem of international border. Unless the original problem is resolved it will manifest itself in many other forms and distract us from it.
As for Pakistan is concerned we should leave it to them and US to resolve their own problems. We should bother to wage war in other peoples home. Honestly we do not have the capability to do that unlike US and few other countries in UNSC. Truth has always been that unless the war is not fought in your home you are always the loser. For now all we can do is to do all we can to defend our borders if at all we we are aware where they are.
@ Abhishek: Yes, technology is also a factor. Might sound strange, but you know - India's borders are actually very well defined. But it is the legality of the dotted line which is the issue. In Kashmir, Pakistan ceded Aksai Chin to China - probably to only keep India out - cant think of any other reason why any country would want to cede control of captured areas to a third nation. India hotly debates the legality of that transfer.
And in the north east, China disregards the legality of the McMahon line that separates Arunachal with Tibet. When the line was carved, Tibet was under British control. China claims Arunachal to be Southern Tibet.
As for Pakistan, the reference is about trying to get our job done in the ensuing melee - in Hindi - 'behti ganga me haath dho lete hain' :)
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